A critical evaluation of DOE's (U. S. Department of Energy) natural gas forecasting model
In Aug. 1977, a number of natural gas companies agreed to have Zinder Energy Management investigate and evaluate various gas transmission models developed for use by the DOE in applications such as: supply and demand volumes pertinent to the Alaskan Gas proceedings and the El Paso LNG proceedings; bottlenecks and incremental capacity needs in the U.S. natural gas system; transmission costs for various supply scenarios; and forecasts of supply situations from considerations of environmental impact statements. The DOE models were developed without independent validation or data verification or industry input. It is concluded that the model's representation of the U.S. gas pipeline industry does not approximate physical and economic reality well enough to justify its use, and that industry should either educate DOE, work with DOE, or oppose directly. Steps taken in evaluating the model are discussed in detail
บทความ, 1978